NFL - N.Y. Jets at Dallas (4:15 PM ET – CBS)

Dallas survived a tough game against Washington and now hosts what should be a much easier contest on Thanksgiving vs. the Jets

2007-11-22

Dallas survived a tough game against Washington and now hosts what should be a much easier contest on Thanksgiving vs. the Jets. The Cowboys are a 14-point favorite, but the line figured to be much higher before Sunday’s New York upset of Pittsburgh.

In recent years, Dallas has fared better in its Turkey Day games vs. conference rivals, as it has lost three straight to the AFC in this spot, going 1-2 ATS. Overall, owner Jerry Jones’ team is on a 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS run in non-conference tilts. The Jets have won ATS in two straight games after losing their prior five. However, they are on a 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS slump on the road. In their only opportunity as a double-digit dog under Eric Mangini, they beat New England on the road in ’06, 17-14.

The Jets are struggling in every way imaginable. Their banner free agent of the year, RB Thomas Jones, has been rendered useless by a struggling young offensive line. Meanwhile the work of veteran QB Chad Pennington, while efficient and intelligent, failed to meet the needs of a team often working from behind. As a result, the starting reigns have been handed to up-and-coming Kellen Clemens, not nearly as accurate but boasting a much strong arm.

On the other hand lie the Cowboys, enjoying the rise of a prodigious young QB (Tony Romo) heading the charge of all things right and good with a unit ranked as one of the best in the league. Supported by an outstanding offensive line, a rushing attack manned by two capable weapons of destruction (Marion Barber, Julius Jones), and list of skill-laden receivers, Romo’s efforts are earning more MVP talk than any other player in the NFC. Add a top-ranked defense and domination is the expectation.

Keys to the Game – Dallas’ best start since 1995 gives the Cowboys thoughts of Super Bowl aspirations. HC Wade Phillips’ laid-back approach is thought to be giving players more room to express themselves and play hard when he needs them to. Facing the Jets is not cause for inspiration, though the Cowboys are only 9-17-1 ATS working as double-digit favorites. It’s been a lost season for the Jets who have poor offensive line play that has manifested into weak efforts from the quarterbacks. The Flyboys have turned into the Lost Boys and are 4-11 SU and ATS in non-division away games.

Trends
N.Y. Jets are 8-1 OVER when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last two seasons.
Dallas is 8-4-1 ATS as a Thursday home favorite.

StatFox Pick – Cowboys minus points

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