NFL: Indianapolis at San Diego (8:00 PM ET, NBC)

San Diego won its last four games to finish 8-8, rallying for the AFC West title. As such, the Chargers are granted a home playoff game against a team that finished 12-4 and comes in on 9-game winning streak, the Colts.

2008-12-31

San Diego won its last four games to finish 8-8, rallying for the AFC West title. As such, the Chargers are granted a home playoff game against a team that finished 12-4 and comes in on 9-game winning streak, the Colts. Indianapolis is rightfully the favorite, laying 1-1/2 points to open. San Diego boasts some huge offensive numbers though, averaging 6.2 yards per play. The Chargers are 19-8 vs. AFC foes under Norv Turner, including 3-1 ATS in the playoffs. Indy head coach Tony Dungy is 19-4 record vs. teams exceeding 6.0 YPP. These teams have become familiar foes, playing five times since 2004, all decided by 9-points or less, including a 28-24 win by the Chargers in the playoffs a year ago. In those games, San Diego holds a 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS edge overall.

About 51 weeks ago the Chargers took the road and beat the Colts in an AFC divisional round playoff game at the recently leveled RCA Dome, 28-24, as a double-digit underdog. This Saturday night, Indianapolis gets a chance to avenge the loss when it travels to San Diego for the second time in six weeks.
The Chargers, who entered December with a record of 4-8, won their last four regular-season games to capture the AFC West crown for a third straight year and enter the playoffs as one of the most dangerous .500 teams in NFL history. Last Sunday night they took a winner-take-all game against visiting Denver, 52-21, behind quarterback Philip Rivers’ 33rd and 34th touchdown passes and LaDainian Tomlinson’s three rushing scores. Two of Rivers’ touchdowns and 288 of his 4,009 yards came in San Diego’s 23-20 loss to the Colts in Week 12.

Indianapolis rolls into the playoffs winners of nine in a row. The Colts, 12-4, took advantage of a weak schedule down the stretch, beating Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit and Jacksonville in the weeks following their victory over the Chargers. Quarterback Peyton Manning emerged as a leading MVP candidate and surpassed 4,000 yards with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and it’s unlikely the visitors will escape with a win without a huge performance from him.

Manning is getting little help from the running game. Only Arizona managed fewer yards on the ground than Indianapolis, which averaged less than 80 yards per game rushing and 3.5 yards per carry. Joseph Addai scored only three times over the last 12 games (he missed four with injuries) and may not get his number called as much as backfield mate Dominic Rhodes, who had nine touchdowns. The Colts had 91 yards on 23 attempts in the regular-season meeting and Rhodes caught a one-yard scoring toss from Manning, who completed 32 of 44 passes—the last of which went for 14 yards to Marvin Harrison on fourth-and-inches from the San Diego 48-yard line and set up Adam Vinatieri’s game-winning 51-yard field goal.

Similar plays might be necessary if the Indianapolis defense struggles like it did against the Lions and Jaguars. San Diego’s passing offense ranked seventh, and there’s always the threat of Tomlinson and elusive backup Darren Sproles.

PREDICTION: While Manning picked apart the Chargers’ defense for 730 yards and five touchdowns in two games a year ago, he was intercepted eight times. The Bolts are lucky to be here, but they’ve gone toe-to-toe with the Colts more than once and will be a tough out. SAN DIEGO 24, INDIANAPOLIS 20

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